Questions & Answers with Pat Skipper
Pat has a wealth of real estate and home buying and selling knowledge. Below Pat shares some of her insights. What follows is the text of a recent conversation with Pat regarding the market outlook for Marin real estate.
Q: Some people are expecting a robust economic recovery and return to a more normal market. What do you foresee?
Pat: I think we have to look realistically at what I call the “new normal” economic picture. If we define “normal” as a move back into the market of the 25-30 years prior to 2008, I think that period is gone forever. The jobs lost in the economic meltdown are not coming back. Millions of workers in this country have been permanently displaced by a combination of technology and the outsourcing of jobs to lower wage offshore workers. Fiscal and monetary policies are not going to reverse the effects of the global economy. Unemployment is California is still too high and looks like it will stay that way for at least two more years.
Q: With that in mind, what effects will the “new normal” have locally?
Pat: I have no crystal ball and I don’t really pay attention to the numbers on a month to month basis. As long as bank-owned properties and short sales (in which a bank agrees to accept less than the amount owed) constitute somewhere between 25 and 30% of single-family transactions, we are not what I would describe as being in a “recovering” market. Loan problems continue to plague us.
Q: Is there a positive side to this story?
Pat: Yes. The positive side is that we are at the end of a period of irrational exuberance in California real estate. We are coming out of “never never” land into a more stable, prudent period. In California and particularly here in Marin, there will always be demand for housing because people love to live here. For example, people with school age children living in San Francisco will still look favorably on Marin as a potential place to live. The demand will remain, but it just won’t be the feeding frenzy it once was. I think this is progress, even though it may not feel like it.
